What if the World Melts?

There's a lot of talk about the impending doom of America. Everyone has an opinion, and most people's opinions revolve around some notion of our economic system collapsing. Whether it's the housing market, our currency, the stock market, or some other piece of our economy, people think it's all going to melt. 

Do I think our world is perfectly put together and predestined for a long and rosy path? Absolutely not. In fact, I think we have some pain ahead of us. Companies are starting to lay people off. Interest rates and stubbornly high house prices are limiting housing affordability. Rampant inflation (particularly for food and gas) is squeezing away families' remaining financial margin. Consumer debt has surpassed all-time highs. And to put a cherry on top, Federal student loan payments are set to resume on 10/1. All of this is a recipe for tough times. 

So what do we do about it? First, I'll inventory the crappy advice I'm hearing all around me:

• Sell all of your stock investments.

• Buy gold.

• Buy real estate (regardless of its price and affordability).

• Apply for HELOCs, credit cards, and other forms of debt.

• Buy crypto

All of this is advice being pedaled by so-called experts. Well, they are experts, actually. They are experts at what they are experts in (i.e., not finances), but then talk about these topics, and their credibility transfers with it. My wife regularly shares ideas she hears from very smart people she follows online and in the media. Brilliant people in their own right. They should be listened to when it comes to their areas of expertise. Then, however, they start spouting opinions about these other things....and people just blindly believe them. 

I'm not suggesting you should listen to me, though. I'll let you decide for yourself. If you do decide to heed my advice, here are a few simple things we can each do to prepare for what's probably a rough road ahead:

• Get intentional. Make a plan each month, then execute it. Know what you'll do, do it, and know you did it. Budgeting.....the dreaded b-word.

• Make sure your investments are simple and straight-forward. Invest broadly and cheaply. I'm a big fan of total stock market index funds. With a few clicks of the mouse, you can own one fund, with 500-4,000 different companies, with almost zero fees. 

• Once your investments are locked in, don't touch them....ever. Don't let fear get the best of you. In the 155-year history of our stock market, there's never been a 15-year window where the market lost money....ever. 

• Make sure you have an emergency fund. Set some money aside in a savings account. Use it only for real emergencies. 

• Serve and give to people in need. Generosity always wins. 

• Surround yourself with encouraging people. 

• Live a meaningful life. If we let it, there's always something to scare us and keep us awake at night. Block it out and make the best of each day.

We'll get through it!

The Stock Market Is Melting....or Is It?

Per usual, there's been a lot of talk about how bad the stock market is. According to the prevailing narrative, it's "risky," people have lost a lot of money, and it's not wise to put money in it. Whenever I wander into these types of conversations, I always ask why people think that. Inevitably, the answer is some form of "because it's lost so much money." 

First, I'm not belittling anyone here. I understand perfectly well why people have this impression of the stock market. If you watch the news, they consistently report the big red arrows pointing down......but rarely show the big green arrows pointing up. It's doom and gloom. If it bleeds, it leads. 

There's also the reality that the 21st century has started a bit (er, a lot) rocky. Over the last 23.5 years, here's what we've experienced:

• Y2K

• Tech bubble burst

• Worst terror attack in US history

• Multiple wars

• 2nd worst recession in US history

• Housing market collapse

• Global pandemic

• rampant inflation

• 4 stock market crashes (-46%, -54%, -32%, and -25%)

Pretty insane, right?!?!

So when people feel like the world is melting and the stock market is an absolute disaster, I get it. But what's the truth? Through all that, over 23.5 years, the stock market is up 6.7% per year. If you would have invested on 1/1/2000, your money would be worth 4.6x what it started as. You more than quadrupled your money. Re-read my list of chaos above.....then digest that the market has gone up 4.6x through all that. Crazy, but true!

Perspective matters, as I love to say. Our world takes simple, practical, and effective ideas, and perverts them into urban legends and half-truths. Truth matters, but there's so much noise in the financial world that it's hard to see it sometimes. 

Whether you're investing in your work's 401(k)/403(b), your IRAs, or other types of stock market investing, remember this concept, and don't lose any sleep at night! In the world of meaning over money, losing sleep over investments is not leaning into the meaning. You got this!

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Yesterday, we released a podcast episode about the same topic. If you have a friend who enjoys reading, please consider passing along the blog post. If you have a friend who enjoys listening to podcasts, please consider the same. You can find it on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. 

Note: The figures mentioned above are based on the S&P 500 and include the reinvestment of dividends.

Prepare, Hope

The last 24 hours have been surreal. The NCAA formally decided to host the NCAA Tournament without fans, the NBA suspended its season indefinitely, the World Health Organization officially declared COVID-19 a pandemic, and trading in the stock market was halted for the second time in a week. First and foremost, I’m not a doctor. I don’t even play one on TV. I’m over here in my little corner of the world trying to figure out how to navigate this situation for my family. As of right now, I don’t have clarity on that but have been actively seeking wise counsel from my friends in the medical world.

However, I do have a lot of insights and opinions as it relates to how we should be approaching our finances. I’ll let you decide how much value you want to attribute to them. These are my opinions and my opinions alone. If I were you, I’d strongly consider what I have to say, strongly consider what others have to say, and use the collective insights to make the best possible decisions for your family.

I have one overarching fear. We’ve had 11 years of up. 11 years of growth. 11 years of good. That’s an absurd amount of time to be on a winning streak. This unthinkable run does have consequences, though. Specifically, if you’re under the age of 35, you’ve never experienced what economic turmoil looks like first-hand. You’ve never felt the sharp pain of watching your investments evaporate into thin air, or lived through the fear of waking up every day wondering “will I still have a job by the end of the day?” You haven’t watched your peers, one-by-one, experience a financial collapse. You haven’t felt the harsh consequences of debt (and there’s a lot of debt!).

I don’t say all this to incite panic or worry. Rather, I want us to look at this issue directly in the eyes, prepare ourselves, and navigate the rough waters that are likely in store. As the saying goes, “Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.” That’s what we’ll do. With that being said, let’s dive in!

INVESTMENTS

As of this morning, the stock market (S&P 500) is down 25% in just over three weeks. Wow, that’s scary! However, let me frame it up a bit differently. After this huge 25% decrease, the stock market is sitting at values not seen since……well, February 2019. Yes, you read that correctly. We are sitting at the same place we were just over a year ago. We’re also double where we were before the last stock market crash and nearly 4x as high as we were at the bottom of the last recession. Perspective matters! In its 150-year history, the U.S. stock market has provided an average 9% return to its investors. That’s not a 9% return during the good times. That’s a 9% return through all the times, good and bad. That 9% includes two world wars, the assassination of a president, 9/11, the tech bubble burst, 29 recessions, and countless other tragedies. The point: our country’s stock market is resilient, and over a long period of time (15+ years), poses far less risk than most believe. In fact, if you’ve put your money in the stock market and left it for 15 years at any point in the last 150 years, you’ve NEVER lost money. There are a few instances of losses over a 10-year period, but the stock market has never lost money over a 15-year period.

So what does that mean for you? What decisions should you make in light of today’s crazy situation? In short, nothing. Assuming you’re invested in diverse, low-cost, stock index funds, you should do absolutely nothing. Stay the course! If you’re currently making periodic investments into these same index funds, whether its via paycheck deductions into a 401(k)/403(b), or by you manually investing into IRAs or taxable accounts, continue to do it. Stay the course! It feels yucky at the moment, but in the long run you will be so grateful you stuck to the plan.

EMERGENCY FUND

There is so much uncertainty in our global economy right now. China is isolated from the world. Italy just went into total shutdown mode. Airlines are shutting down portions of their fleet. Public events (large and small) are being canceled altogether. So many weird things. The system is being stressed right now, and it’s hard to tell how it all plays out. One thing is for sure, this amount of stress is going to result in some casualties. Some companies will go under, some jobs will be cut, and overall business activity will slow as COVID-19 becomes a more tangible reality in our communities. It would be irresponsible for me to make any specific predictions on who will be impacted and how, but the writing is on the wall that some people are going to be materially impacted, economically-speaking. I would also caution you to not look at the situation and say “I don’t work in the ‘insert name’ industry, so I won’t be impacted.” That’s short-sighted. If there’s this much stress on the system, we will all feel it. Let’s use the travel industry as an example. If people from the travel industry lose their jobs, they may not be able to make their rent/mortgage payments (negatively impacting landlords, financial institutions, and taxing authorities), they may not have a lot of money to buy things (hurting businesses in their community), and there will be more competition for available jobs (lower pay and more stress for prospective employees in other industries). Lots of possible ripple effects.

With that in mind, we would all be wise to make sure we have our emergency funds topped off during the season ahead. Having cash available could be the difference between paying the bills or not paying the bills. If you already have a healthy emergency fund (say 3-6 months of expenses), awesome! Make sure that cash stays available for immediate withdrawal. If you have the ability to increase your emergency fund in the near-term, you may want to do that as well. If you’re actively paying off debt (awesome, by the way!), you may want to push pause on that effort and instead place that money into your emergency fund. You may want to trim back some of the extras in your budget to find additional cash for your emergency fund. I would NOT advise anyone to sell stock index fund investments in order to raise cash for their emergency fund. If at all possible, please leave that money alone. We don’t want to voluntarily sell those investments in the middle of a 25% decline. Hopefully you never need to use any of this cash, but it will be there for you in the event rough waters do hit your family. When all the smoke clears and you’ve successfully navigated this mess, then that money will still be available to do whatever you were previously going to do with it (pay off debt, go on that trip, replace your car, etc.).

MAJOR DECISIONS

I’ll say this very clearly……this is NOT a good time to be making major financial decisions. If you’re thinking about buying a home, purchasing a new car, retiring imminently, or taking any other action that results in a material change to your finances, I simply wouldn’t do it. These are all great things, and I want them to happen for you, but I don’t want them to turn your life into a nightmare. My best advice is to be patient, let this season pass, and then make these awesome decisions with more clarity, full confidence, and less fear. Some of you might be thinking “well I can get a great deal if I act now.” These are also the same people I mentioned above that weren’t old enough to live through the Great Financial Crisis. Today, in this moment, some major decisions can make sense. But what happens tomorrow or next week when your world gets unsuspectedly turned upside-down? This is when fear sets in and we start to snowball bad decision after bad decision. Please don’t put yourself at risk for something like this. If you have house or car fever today, it may be time to take a cold shower. Those houses and cars will still be there for you when all this calms down, and probably at a really good price!

HEALTH INSURANCE

As I reiterate often with my clients, not having health insurance is never an option. This was true 10 years ago, it was true yesterday, it is true today, and it will be true 10 years from now. Without health insurance, we are one bad day away from absolute financial ruin. Please don’t allow yourself to be unnecessarily vulnerable to this risk, especially when the issue at hand is a global pandemic! If you’re 26 or younger and on your parents’ health insurance plan, great! If you have health insurance through your employer, great! If you’re uninsured today, not so great! If that’s you, one of the most affordable and efficient options is a health sharing program. I’m a big believer in these programs and actually use one myself. My family uses Medi-Share and I can’t say enough good things about them. Here’s an article that explains what health sharing programs are, and it even compares a few of the larger programs. I’m not affiliated with this blog, but I think you’ll find this information useful. We don’t need the Rolls Royce of health insurance plans, but we do need something. Look at it like auto insurance. We don’t rely on our auto insurance to pay for our oil changes, or brake pads, or alternators. No, we rely on our auto insurance to protect our financial life when we wrap our car around a light pole. It protects us against the really bad stuff. Our health insurance should be the same way. Find a plan that offers you enough protection that one bad day won’t blow up your life, but affordable enough for you to work it into your monthly budget.

GIVING

If you give generously, and I really hope you do, please do not let fear deter you from giving. Based on many of my words above, the need for joyful, generous givers may be more important in the months ahead than it has been for the last decade. There are people hurting and they will continue to need people like you and I to step in and show God’s love through our generosity. There are a lot of places in our financial life to cut back on, but I don’t think generosity should be one of them. The moment we stop giving (or materially pull back our giving) is the moment we start living in fear and making it all about us. If you’re a person of faith as I am, this is a great season to test your trust in God and his provision in your life. If we can be generous and selfless through a season of uncertainty and nervousness, just picture how much we can grow in our faith in the season ahead!

Those are my five key takeaways today. Stay the course on investing, keep as much cash in your emergency fund as possible, push pause on any major decisions, make sure you have health insurance, and keep being generous. If there are other topics or questions on your mind, please ask them in the comment section below. I will either address them in the comments, in a private exchange with you personally, or in a subsequent blog post. Lastly, please share this with people in your life so they too can get prepared for the season ahead. Now let’s go from here and make sure we’re taking care of our family! After all, money is never about money.

“Those are my five key takeaways today. Stay the course on investing, keep as much cash in your emergency fund as possible, push pause on any major decisions, make sure you have health insurance, and keep being generous.”