The Dip Is a Myth
I have a strange hobby. Occasionally, I'll set a random reminder on my phone for the distant future. These reminders usually stem from conversations with buddies or goals with clients. It's always a fun treat to get a random, obscure reminder. Yesterday, I woke up to a memorable one: "Remind Ryan the dip is a myth." That's it. That's all it said.
This reminder stems from a conversation I had with a group of friends one year ago yesterday. A few of the guys asked me about my opinions on investing. After I shared my perspective (which you've heard here often), a guy (we'll call him Ryan) disregarded the entire thing. "I'm saving all my cash to buy the dip. That's where the real money is made." For context, he had liquidated most of his retirement investments and was sitting on mostly cash, eagerly anticipating a crash. I can't remember the exact amount, but it was a bit north of $200,000.
I, of course, couldn't disagree more with this sentiment. It's a proven bad strategy, oozing with naivety, a false sense of control, and overconfidence. After all, buying the dip requires you to know when the dip actually occurs, put your money where your mouth is, and know when to sell.
Further, let's not forget the stock market is up far more than it is down. To demonstrate, here are a few staggering statistics about the last 154 years of U.S. stock market history:
The market has been up in 74% of calendar years.
It's been up 78% of 2-year stretches.
Even crazier, it's been up 85% of 3-year periods.
The odds are heavily in favor of up!
After sharing the behavioral, philosophical, and historical reasons why buying the dip is a terrible idea, Ryan responds, "You're wrong. You'll see." We agreed to set a reminder 12 months out and compare notes 365 days later.
Well, yesterday was the day, according to my pop-up reminder. So, how did Ryan fare? Here's a screenshot of how the Vanguard total U.S. stock market index performed over the last 12 months:
+25.2%. Ouch! Not only did Ryan not win, he got crushed. In his arrogance and greed, assuming he had $200,000 sitting in cash, he lost at least $50,000 of gains! That's a tough lesson.
I sent him the reminder today, along with the market performance screenshot I included above. He responded, "It was the right decision—it still is. I'll keep waiting for the dip." Old habits die hard.
Will Ryan ever succeed in this endeavor? Maybe. The odds are heavily stacked against him, though. It will require a mix of luck, close monitoring, the conviction to act, the conviction to act again, and a lot more luck. Conversely, he could follow the statistical odds of success by simply investing now and never worrying about it again. I like that option much, much, much better.
Fortunately for you, the best way is the simplest way. The dip is a myth, so just invest.....then patiently (and boringly) wait.