Sometimes, "Pretty Good" Sucks
I recently had a conversation that I repeat multiple times per week. I was meeting with a friend, and the topic of investing came up. They mentioned they use a financial planner who does a "pretty good job." This comment always sets off my red flag and warning sirens. What is the definition of a pretty good job? How do we know our investments are performing well? Because they are going up? Because they are being watched? Because they are spread across a few dozen funds that sound like some sort of twisted alphabet soup? Because they are being managed by someone we know and trust?
I asked them what company they use for their investments. In my head, all I could think was, "please don't say xyz, please don't say xyz, please don't say xyz." "We work with xyz." Nooooooo! That's the moment I knew they were in a tough spot. For what it's worth, xyz is a very prominent, highly respected, broadly welcomed financial advising company. Before I go on, please let me clarify that nothing this company does is inherently immoral, illegal, or ill-intentioned. Rather, they do things the old way. By "the old way," I mean the way things used to be done before they didn't need to be done that way anymore. In today's world, we have access to the very best funds in the world, at the tip of our fingers (er, screen), at little to no cost.
Knowing what company they are working with, I know the general lay of the land. They are most likely paying around 1.25% for management fees and have a portfolio that will, over a long period of time, perform at least 0.75% worse than the overall stock market. Therefore, this person is likely invested in a portfolio that will perpetually perform 2% less than the overall stock market. If the stock market performs at a long-term 9% (just below its historical average), this person may receive 7%. This doesn't seem like a meaningful difference, but let's look at the math:
Here are the assumptions:
Current age: 42
Ending age: 65
Current balance: $500,000
Annual contributions: $25,000
These are very simple, rough numbers for illustrative purposes.
At age 65, their current strategy would result in a balance of approximately $3,700,000. See, that's pretty good! That's a lot of money! Their person did a great job!
But wait, what about the other way? If this person were to simply invest in the overall market (readily accessible to each of us at practically no cost), they would have approximately $5,400,000 instead. That's a $1,700,000 difference!!! I don't know the definition of "pretty good," but in my book, ending up $1,700,000 worse off fails my smell test.
This isn't my friend's fault. After all, nobody teaches us this stuff! Here's the beautiful part, though. All it takes is one simple tweak. It seems too good to be true, but it's not.