What We Don’t Know WILL Hurt Us

According to a recent Northwestern Mutual survey, Americans believe they will need approximately $1.46M in their investment portfolio to comfortably retire.

As I suspected, personal finance social media is abuzz about this. There's a wild debate about whether this average number of $1.46M is enough. Financial experts are quick to use the 4% rule, which I agree is a prudent way to find a quick rule-of-thumb answer. To summarize, there's a principle in the investment world that says when we start to withdraw money from a large block of invested capital, we can take an amount equal to 4% of our total investment portfolio in the first year, then adjust that dollar amount upward for inflation each year after that. If we follow that strategy, statistically speaking, we shouldn't run out of money during our lifetime.

Let's use a real example. If we have $1.46M in our portfolio when we retire, 4% of that number is $58,400. In other words, a family who retires today with a $1.46M portfolio can generate an annual income of $58,400. This decision has more considerations and nuance, but that's a pretty fair back-of-the-envelope rule of thumb.

This is where the experts came unglued. "You can't retire on $58,000/year!!!!!" In short, people focused on what balance is needed to achieve the annual income they deemed acceptable. Many concluded that $2.0M ($80,000/year retirement income) or even $2.5M ($100,000/year retirement income) is adequate.

Through all this discourse about the appropriate level of retirement lifestyle, they failed to consider the most important factor of all: inflation. Let's go back to the above example. As I mentioned, according to the 4% rule, if someone retires today with a $1.46M portfolio, they could generate an annual retirement income of $58,400. There's one key word in my last sentence...."today." Whether you believe $58,400/year is an acceptable number or not, $58,400 today is not the same as $58,400 in 10 years.....or 20 years.....or 30 years.

If you're 50 and want to retire at 60, that $1.46M portfolio will still generate an annual income of $58,400. However, due to inflation, $58,400 in 10 years will feel like $43,500 feels like today.

If you're 40 today, that same $58,400 at age 60 will feel like $32,300 feels like today. Ouch!

If you're 30 today, that same $58,400 at age 60 will feel like $24,000 feels like today. Uh oh!

Can you see the problem here? Millions of people have a belief structure that, even if they actually meet their goals, are unknowingly barreling toward a challenging situation.

What we don't know WILL hurt us. This sentiment applies to this topic, and others. That doesn't mean we need to become experts in all areas, but gaining awareness of the bigger picture is often the gateway to being better and having better. For that reason, I'm grateful you're here. I hope to provide context and perspective in a few of these areas, but we should all seek other places to grow in other areas as well.

What other resources/content (money or not) do you enjoy consuming on a regular basis?