"It's Different This Time"
I recently met with a concerned friend. On the heels of the recent stock market volatility, he's convinced the best course of action is to sell his investment portfolio and save himself from imminent doom. I explained how this is the nature of the stock market, and how patient people will be rewarded. His response: "This time it's different."
This is where he began to explain all the reasons why my stock market knowledge and fancy data are garbage. Because of x, y, and z, we're doomed, and as such, people should sell out and find alternative investments (such as gold, bonds, cash, crypto, etc.).
In the last 150 years, the stock market has fallen by at least 20% on 23 different occasions. That's once every 6.5 years. Not only has the market recovered each time, but it's recovered to new all-time highs the world has never seen. Every crash has been followed by unprecedented prosperity. 23 out of 23. Do you know what else happened in each one of these 23 stock market collapses? There was a large group of people who said, "It's different this time."
We perpetually think we're living in never-seen-before dark times. Given our biases, we think it couldn't possibly get worse than our current situation. And therefore, "it's different this time."
"It's different this time," said the people in the aftermath of the Civil War, when the railroad system failed, when the industrial revolution caused a massive labor shift, when World War I froze international trade, when we experienced the Great Depression, when the world spiraled into World War II, when the oil crisis hit, when our president was assassinated, when we endured a handful more wars, when the tech bubble burst, when 9/11 shook our nation to its core, when we experienced the worst housing crisis in U.S. history, and when the world shut down due to a sudden global pandemic.
Every single time something terrible happens, our gut reaction is to believe it's different this time. Translation: It doesn't matter that history says patient people will be rewarded.....it's time to react! Fear is a destructive bedfellow.
23 times our stock market has fallen by at least 20%. 23 times it subsequently rose to unprecedented levels. 23 out of 23 times, patience won. 23 out of 23 times, rash decisions got punished.
Could it be different this time? I suppose. But history tells us we've been here before. History tells us the best is yet to come.
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